Newsletter: 9 Mental Models You Can Use to Think Like a Genius

If you’re looking to improve your problem-solving skills and gain a better understanding of how the world works, mental models are the way to go. Mental models are simply representations of how the world works, and they can help you simplify the complex and better understand the things you don’t know. In this article, we’ll explore nine different mental models that can help you see the world in ways that no one else could even fathom.

One of the most important mental models to learn is that the map is not the territory. This model teaches us that the representation of reality is not actual reality, and even the best maps are imperfect because they are naturally reductions of what they represent. By understanding this, you can ensure that you get familiar with the actual territory before making an important decision and not just go based on whatever the map is saying.

Understanding Mental Models

Mental models are representations of how the world works, which help us understand complex concepts by simplifying them into ideas that we do understand. These models aid us in learning about the things that we don’t understand. By using mental models, we can see the world in ways that no one else could even fathom and improve how we think.

One of the most important mental models to learn is “map is not the territory.” This model teaches us that the representation of reality is not actual reality. Even the best maps are imperfect because they are naturally reductions of what they represent. Therefore, before making decisions based on assumptions, maps, reports, or summaries, you have to ensure that you understand that their production of the thing is not the thing. Make sure you get familiar with the actual territory before you make an important decision.

Another mental model is the “circle of competence.” Each one of us has built up useful knowledge on different areas of the world through our experience and study. Some of those areas are inside of our circle of competence, and these are the things that we understand well. When making a decision, evaluate where the scope of that decision lies relative to your circle of competence. If it falls inside of it, you can make the decision with confidence, knowing that you have the expertise to make the decision. If the decision falls outside of the scope of your circle of competence, consult an expert whose circle of competence contains that decision.

Second-order thinking is another mental model, which requires us to consider our actions and their immediate consequences, as well as the consequences of those consequences. This type of thinking is thinking further ahead and thinking holistically. It helps us avoid the consequences of our decisions that we might not have considered initially.

Probabilistic thinking is another mental model that encourages us to assign a probability estimate to any specific outcome happening, using some tools of math and logic. This type of thinking helps us estimate the likelihood of any specific outcome happening, rather than deciding things as either happening or not happening.

Inversion is a powerful tool to improve your thinking because it helps you identify and remove different obstacles to success. As a thinking tool, it means approaching a situation from the opposite end of the natural starting point. Instead of thinking about success and aiming for whatever that looks like, you think about failure and make sure you stay away from whatever that looks like.

By using these mental models, you can learn the fundamental concepts of other disciplines to help give you a bigger toolbox to sort of see the world through. The more models you have, the more lenses you can use while you look at the world, and therefore the fewer blind spots you end up having. To learn more about these mental models and how to use them in your life, you can visit our site fs.blog or read our books on mental models.

Map Is Not the Territory

One of the most fundamental mental models to learn is that the map is not the territory. This model teaches that the representation of reality is not actual reality. Even the best maps are imperfect because they are naturally reductions of what they represent. If a map were to represent the territory with perfect fidelity, it would no longer be a reduction of the thing; it would just be the thing.

For instance, imagine trying to navigate New York with a map the size of New York in your pocket. There are just so many obvious reasons why that won’t work. At a more practical level, the graph or the spreadsheet of the financials of the company isn’t actually the financials of the company. So, it doesn’t accurately represent the real important numbers in the dollars in your bank account. The information about a project from your direct report isn’t the actual project.

Therefore, before making decisions based on these assumptions, maps, reports, and summaries, you have to ensure that you understand 100 percent that their production of the thing is not the thing. So, make sure you get familiar with the actual territory before you make an important decision and not just go based on whatever the map is saying.

In summary, the map is just a representation of reality, not reality itself. It’s essential to keep in mind that the map is not the territory, and you need to understand the actual territory before making important decisions.

Circle of Competence

One of the most important mental models to learn is the Circle of Competence. Each person has built up useful knowledge on different areas of the world, some of which are inside their Circle of Competence and these are the things that they understand well. For instance, if you work as a marketing director, marketing is probably within your Circle of Competence, product might be around the edges, and engineering is well outside of your Circle of Competence.

When making a decision, you can evaluate where the scope of that decision lies relative to your Circle of Competence. If it falls inside of it, you can make the decision with confidence, knowing that you have the expertise to make the decision. If the decision falls outside of the scope of your Circle of Competence, that’s when you can consult an expert whose Circle of Competence contains that decision.

Tom Watson, the founder of IBM, put it best when he said, “I’m no genius. I’m smart in spots and I stay around those spots.” We should all aim to do the same. By understanding and staying within our Circle of Competence, we can make better decisions and avoid costly mistakes.

Second Order Thinking

When faced with a problem or decision, it’s easy to fall into first order thinking, which only considers the immediate consequences of an action. However, second order thinking takes into account not only the immediate consequences but also the potential consequences of those consequences. This holistic approach requires more effort and consideration, but it can lead to better outcomes and fewer unintended consequences.

For example, consider the Cobra Effect. In the 1900s, British Colonials ruled India and faced a massive cobra problem. The government decided to pay citizens to kill snakes, but citizens started breeding snakes to earn more money. When the government ended the bounty program, citizens released the snakes into the streets, making the cobra problem even worse. This situation could have been avoided if the government had considered the second order effects of their decision to offer a bounty.

To apply second order thinking, it’s important to consider the potential consequences of your actions and decisions. Ask yourself, “What could happen next?” and “How will my decision affect the future?” This type of thinking can help you avoid unintended consequences and make more informed decisions.

Some other mental models that can help improve your thinking include:

Map is not the territory: Remember that any representation of reality, such as a map or spreadsheet, is not the actual reality and may be imperfect. Always seek to understand the actual territory before making important decisions.
Circle of competence: Recognize your areas of expertise and limitations. Consult experts when making decisions outside of your circle of competence.
Probabilistic thinking: Use math and logic to estimate the likelihood of specific outcomes. Consider prior information to provide context and make more accurate estimates.
Inversion: Instead of focusing on success, consider what failure would look like and work to avoid it.

By incorporating these mental models into your thinking, you can improve your decision-making and see the world in new and valuable ways.

Probabilistic Thinking

Probabilistic thinking is a mental model that allows you to estimate the likelihood of a specific outcome happening by using mathematical and logical tools. This model encourages you to assign a probability estimate to an event to get a more accurate result.

For example, let’s say you read a headline in your local paper that says car break-ins are on the rise. Without thinking probabilistically, you might start to worry about leaving your car parked on the street. However, using probabilistic thinking, you can add more context to the situation. If you know that violent crime has been declining in your city and that the chance of your car getting broken into last year was one in ten thousand or 0.01%, and the article states that this type of crime has doubled, then it is now two in ten thousand or 0.02%. When you factor in this prior information, you realize that your safety isn’t really being compromised.

Probabilistic thinking is a powerful tool that can help you make more informed decisions by taking into account the probability of different outcomes. By using this mental model, you can avoid making overly simplistic or black-and-white decisions and gain a more accurate understanding of the world around you.

Inversion

Inversion is a mental model that helps you identify and remove obstacles to success. Instead of starting with the natural starting point of thinking about what success would look like and setting goals and priorities around getting there, you start by thinking about what failure would look like and what might cause it. Then, you set goals and priorities to ensure you avoid whatever it is that might cause that failure.

Charlie Munger, the famous investor, has famously said, “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” Inversion is a powerful tool to improve your thinking because it helps you avoid potential pitfalls and obstacles to success.

By using inversion, you can:

Identify potential roadblocks and obstacles to success
Develop contingency plans to mitigate risks
Avoid making decisions that could lead to failure

Inversion is particularly useful in complex and uncertain situations where the outcome is unclear. By thinking about what could go wrong and how to avoid it, you can make better decisions and increase your chances of success.

To apply inversion, follow these steps:

Identify your goal or objective
Think about what could go wrong and what might cause it
Develop contingency plans to mitigate risks and avoid failure
Set goals and priorities to ensure you stay on track and avoid potential pitfalls

In summary, inversion is a powerful mental model that can help you avoid potential obstacles and increase your chances of success. By thinking about what could go wrong and how to avoid it, you can make better decisions and achieve your goals more effectively.

Epistemic Humility

Epistemic humility is an intellectual virtue that involves recognizing and acknowledging the limits of one’s knowledge and understanding. It is an awareness that our beliefs and knowledge claims might be incomplete, inaccurate, or subject to change in light of new evidence or better arguments. This concept is rooted in epistemology, the branch of philosophy that deals with the nature, scope, and limits of knowledge.

People who practice epistemic humility are open to learning from others, willing to revise their beliefs, and cautious about making definitive statements without sufficient evidence. They understand that human cognition is fallible and that our understanding of the world is always provisional to some extent.

Epistemic humility is considered a valuable trait because it can lead to more open-minded and productive discussions, better decision-making, and a greater willingness to engage with diverse perspectives. It is also a counterbalance to intellectual arrogance or dogmatism, where individuals may overestimate the certainty or accuracy of their beliefs.

In various fields, such as science, philosophy, and everyday decision-making, epistemic humility can foster collaboration, innovation, and a more nuanced approach.

Occam’s Razor

Occam’s Razor is a philosophical and methodological principle attributed to the 14th-century English logician, theologian, and Franciscan friar William of Ockham. The principle is also known as the law of parsimony or the law of simplicity. It suggests that when presented with competing hypotheses or explanations for an event or phenomenon, the simplest one—that is, the one that makes the fewest assumptions—should be preferred.

The principle does not imply that the simplest account is always correct, but rather that it is the most reasonable starting point in the absence of evidence to the contrary. In practice, Occam’s Razor is used as a heuristic guide in the scientific method to develop theoretical models and to lead to explanations that are easier to test and falsify.

It’s important to note that “simplest” doesn’t necessarily mean “easiest to understand” but rather refers to the hypothesis that introduces the least amount of new assumptions or entities while still sufficiently explaining the phenomenon. This principle is valuable in many fields, including philosophy, science, and problem-solving, because it encourages minimalism and efficiency in the formulation of theories and explanations.

Hanlon’s Razor

Hanlon’s Razor is an adage or rule of thumb that suggests a way to interpret the behavior of others. The principle is often stated as: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity,” or alternatively, “Do not assume bad intentions when ignorance or neglect is a more likely explanation.”

The heuristic serves as a reminder to avoid jumping to conclusions about another person’s motives when their actions result in harm or offense. Instead of assuming that the harm was intentional, Hanlon’s Razor suggests that it may be more productive and accurate to consider the possibility of non-malicious explanations, such as a lack of understanding, awareness, or competence.

Hanlon’s Razor is often used in situations of conflict or misunderstanding, promoting a more charitable view of human behavior. It encourages people to look for simpler explanations and not to assume that others have bad intentions without clear evidence. This can help maintain a more civil discourse, improve communication, and avoid unnecessary escalation of conflicts.

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